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Moving Averages: If you consider the "trend-is-your-friend" statement of
technical analysis as a true sentence, the moving averages will be very
helpful. Moving averages tell the average price in a given point of time
over a defined period of time. They are called moving because they reflect
the latest average, while adhering to the same time measure.
A weakness of moving averages is that they lag the market, so they do not
necessarily signal a change in trends. To address this issue, using a
shorter period, such as 5 or 10 day moving average, would be more reflective
of the recent price action than the 40 or 150-day moving averages.
Alternatively, moving averages may be used by combining two averages of
distinct time- frames. Whether using 5 and 20-day MA, or 40 and 150-day MA,
buy signals are usually detected when the shorter-term average crosses above
the longer-term average, i.e. price will likely go up. Conversely, sell
signals are suggested when the shorter average falls below the longer one,
i.e. price will likely go down.
There are three kind of mathematically distinct moving averages: Simple MA;
Linearly Weighted MA; and Exponentially Smoothed. The latter choice is the
preferred one because it assigns greater weight for the most recent data,
and considers data in the entire life of the instrument making of it a more
accurate indicator.
MACD: Moving Average Convergence Divergence: MACD is a more detailed method
of using moving averages to find trading signals from price charts.
Developed by Gerald Appel, the MACD plots the difference between a 26-day
exponential moving average and a 12-day exponential moving average. A 9- day
moving average is generally used as a trigger line, meaning when the MACD
crosses below this trigger it is a bearish signal and when it crosses above
it, it's a bullish signal, with the corresponding implications for the
currency’s price in each particular situation.
As with other studies, traders will look to MACD studies to provide early
signals or divergences between market prices and a technical indicator. If
the MACD turns positive and makes higher lows while prices are still
tanking, this could be a strong buy signal. Conversely, if the MACD makes
lower highs while prices are making new highs, this could be a strong
bearish divergence and a sell signal.
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